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What are we dying from? (opens in a new tab)

medicalxpress.com · 2026-09-14

Short answerEvidenceSource

Short answer

Mixed

Mixed.

The claims we could check match the study, but some claims were not covered by the evidence reviewed.

  • 3 supported
  • 3 not covered

Checked against the study summary. The full text wasn't available, so some details couldn't be settled either way.

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1
2

NewsLink checks it

Mixed

Every claim we could check holds up. Three of six claims match the study. This overall rating is based only on the claims we could check. Three claims the study doesn't address.

  • 3 supported
  • 3 not covered
Open claim evidence
3
Source paper

Source layer

The 2 papers the story cites

Source study separated from background citations.

The research anchor for the report.

  • The study this story reportspresented as the new finding

    Overall and cause-specific mortality and associated risk factors among middle-aged and older South Africans: findings from the health and ageing in Africa: a longitudinal study of an INDEPTH community in rural South Africa (HAALSI)

    Age and Ageing · 2026

    PubMed (opens in a new tab)Full Tessa analysis (opens in a new tab)
  • The study this story reportspresented as the new finding

    Overall and cause-specific mortality and associated risk factors among middle-aged and older South Africans: findings from the health and ageing in Africa: a longitudinal study of an INDEPTH community in rural South Africa (HAALSI)

    Age and Ageing · 2026

    PubMed (opens in a new tab)Full Tessa analysis (opens in a new tab)
Then inspect each claim

Evidence layer

Claim by claim

Each claim gets a verdict. Expand it to see the evidence directly below.

6 claims in this story

Showing all 6 claimsChoose a verdict to focus the list.

Claim 1 of 6Not coveredThe study reported that disability and poor function predicted mortality: difficulty with four or more activities of daily living was associated with about four times the risk of dying, strongest grip with about half the mortality risk compared with weakest grip, and slower walking with greater risk of death.View evidenceHide evidence

As statedapproximately four times; about half

Why this verdict

The abstract profile supports the direction of association for ADL limitations, slower walk speed, and lower grip strength with higher all-cause mortality. However, it explicitly does not provide numerical effect estimates such as an approximately fourfold ADL risk or a roughly halved risk for strongest versus weakest grip, so those magnitudes cannot be verified at abstract depth.

1

Study evidence

Cohort outcomes and sex-specific mortality rates: 1,116 deaths (22.1%) occurred over 28,955 person-years; mortality rate 48.3 per 1,000 person-years in men versus 30.7 per 1,000 person-years in women.1116 deaths over 28,955 person-years; 48.3/1,000 py (men); 30.7/1,000 py (women)

“Risk factors for mortality from 2014/2015 to 2021 were analysed using Cox-Proportional Hazards…”
Claim 2 of 6Not coveredPoor self-rated health, underweight status, smoking, severe blood pressure abnormalities, diabetes, previous stroke and a history of TB were also associated with increased mortality, and among people with HIV, unsuppressed viral load on antiretroviral therapy was associated with about twice the mortality risk of HIV-negative participants.View evidenceHide evidence

As statedalmost four times; 87% higher; approximately twice

Why this verdict

The abstract profile supports that poor self-rated health, underweight, smoking, hypertension/history of hypertension, diabetes, stroke, tuberculosis history, and unsuppressed HIV were associated with higher all-cause mortality. It does not provide the story’s numerical magnitudes, comparator groups, blood-pressure severity categories, or the specific claim that unsuppressed viral load on ART had about twice the mortality risk of HIV-negative participants.

1

Study evidence

Cohort outcomes and sex-specific mortality rates: 1,116 deaths (22.1%) occurred over 28,955 person-years; mortality rate 48.3 per 1,000 person-years in men versus 30.7 per 1,000 person-years in women.1116 deaths over 28,955 person-years; 48.3/1,000 py (men); 30.7/1,000 py (women)

“Risk factors for mortality from 2014/2015 to 2021 were analysed using Cox-Proportional Hazards…”
Claim 3 of 6Not coveredThe article says virally suppressed HIV was linked to lower cardiovascular mortality than HIV-negative status, but researchers caution this should not be interpreted as HIV having a protective effect and suggest more frequent health-system contact may explain the finding.View evidenceHide evidence

As statedlower cardiovascular mortality

Why this verdict

The supplied abstract profile notes HIV-related all-cause mortality associations and states that Fine and Gray competing-risk models were used for cause-specific mortality, but it does not report a finding that virally suppressed HIV was associated with lower cardiovascular mortality than HIV-negative status, nor the proposed health-system-contact explanation. The story’s caveat is appropriately hedged, but the claim is not verifiable from the abstract-level evidence supplied.

1

Study evidence

Cohort outcomes and sex-specific mortality rates: 1,116 deaths (22.1%) occurred over 28,955 person-years; mortality rate 48.3 per 1,000 person-years in men versus 30.7 per 1,000 person-years in women.1116 deaths over 28,955 person-years; 48.3/1,000 py (men); 30.7/1,000 py (women)

“Risk factors for mortality from 2014/2015 to 2021 were analysed using Cox-Proportional Hazards…”
2

Study evidence

Fine and Gray competing-risk regression was explicitly used to analyse cause-specific mortality (2014/2015–2021) in the HAALSI cohort.

“Risk factors for mortality from 2014/2015 to 2021 were analysed using Cox-Proportional Hazards and Fine and Gray competing-risk models.”
Claim 4 of 6SupportedCardiovascular diseases now account for a third of deaths in adults over 40 in a rural South African population, and they are now the leading cause of death in the study cohort.View evidenceHide evidence

As stateda third of deaths

Why this verdict

The abstract-level profile reports that cardiovascular diseases were the leading cause of death and accounted for 30.3% of deaths in HAALSI adults aged ≥40, which supports the story’s 'about a third' framing. If 'now' is read as implying a demonstrated temporal transition from a previous leading cause, that transition is not established in the abstract, but the current leading-cause claim is supported.

1

Study evidence

Cardiovascular diseases were the leading cause of death among HAALSI participants through 2021, accounting for 30.3% of deaths overall and showing sex differences (25.9% in men; 35.8% in women).30.3% overall; 25.9% men; 35.8% women

“Cardiovascular diseases were the leading causes of death (30.3%) in both men (25.9%) and women (35.8%), followed by other infectious diseases (23.8%), neoplasms (14.4%), HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (10.1%).”
Claim 5 of 6SupportedA study following more than 5,000 middle-aged and older adults in rural Mpumalanga found that cardiovascular diseases are now the leading cause of death; over seven years, 1,116 participants died, with cardiovascular diseases accounting for about one in three of those deaths.View evidenceHide evidence

As statedmore than 5,000 participants; 1,116 deaths; about one in three deaths

Why this verdict

The profile supports the cohort size and follow-up facts: 5,059 adults aged ≥40, 1,116 deaths over 28,955 person-years from 2014/2015 to 2021, and cardiovascular diseases accounting for 30.3% of deaths as the leading cause. The abstract profile identifies the setting as rural South Africa/HAALSI; the specific provincial label 'Mpumalanga' is not independently detailed in the supplied abstract profile.

1

Study evidence

The HAALSI cohort (n=5,059) experienced 1,116 deaths (22.1%) over 28,955 person-years of follow-up through 2021.

“Data were drawn from the Health and Ageing in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community (HAALSI) cohort.”
2

Study evidence

Cardiovascular diseases were the leading cause of death among HAALSI participants through 2021, accounting for 30.3% of deaths overall and showing sex differences (25.9% in men; 35.8% in women).30.3% overall; 25.9% men; 35.8% women

“Cardiovascular diseases were the leading causes of death (30.3%) in both men (25.9%) and women (35.8%), followed by other infectious diseases (23.8%), neoplasms (14.4%), HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (10.1%).”
Claim 6 of 6SupportedIn the study, infections remained a major part of the mortality burden: sepsis, acute respiratory infections, pneumonia and diarrheal diseases accounted for 23.8% of deaths, cancers for 14.4%, and HIV/AIDS and TB for 10.1%.View evidenceHide evidence

As stated23.8%; 14.4%; 10.1%

Why this verdict

The reported mortality shares match the abstract profile: other infectious diseases 23.8%, neoplasms 14.4%, and HIV/AIDS plus tuberculosis 10.1%. The specific infectious examples named by the story are not broken out in the supplied abstract profile, which only labels the group as 'other infectious diseases,' but the category-level claim and percentages are supported.

1

Study evidence

Cardiovascular diseases were the leading cause of death among HAALSI participants through 2021, accounting for 30.3% of deaths overall and showing sex differences (25.9% in men; 35.8% in women).30.3% overall; 25.9% men; 35.8% women

“Cardiovascular diseases were the leading causes of death (30.3%) in both men (25.9%) and women (35.8%), followed by other infectious diseases (23.8%), neoplasms (14.4%), HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (10.1%).”
Then look for missing context

Context layer

What the story left out

Important study details the story did not include.

  • Sex-stratified cardiovascular mortality proportions differed: cardiovascular diseases accounted for 25.9% of deaths in men and 35.8% in women.

    The story covers the overall cardiovascular cause fraction but does not mention the sex-stratified cardiovascular cause-of-death differences reported in the abstract profile.

    From prospective cohort descriptive cause fractions

  • Overall all-cause mortality rates were higher in men than women: 48.3 versus 30.7 deaths per 1,000 person-years.

    The abstract profile presents this sex difference in overall mortality rates, but the story claims supplied do not report it.

    From prospective cohort follow-up; Prospective cohort; Cox proportional hazards time-to-event analysis

  • The paper used Cox proportional hazards models for all-cause mortality risk factors and Fine and Gray competing-risk models for cause-specific mortality.

    The story reports associations and predictors but does not identify the Cox or Fine and Gray modeling approaches described in the abstract profile.

    From Prospective cohort; Cox proportional hazards time-to-event analysis; Prospective cohort with competing-risk regression

6 things the story did carry across
  • HAALSI prospective cohort design: 5,059 adults aged ≥40 enrolled in 2014/2015 and followed for mortality through 2021, with 1,116 deaths over 28,955 person-years.
  • Cardiovascular diseases were the leading cause of death, accounting for 30.3% of cohort deaths overall.
  • Other major cause-of-death groups remained substantial: other infectious diseases 23.8%, neoplasms 14.4%, and HIV/AIDS plus tuberculosis 10.1%.
  • All-cause mortality risk factors included demographic, behavioral, functional, anthropometric, and clinical predictors such as age, male sex, lower education, smoking, alcohol use, poor self-rated health, underweight, ADL limitations, slower walk speed, lower grip strength, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, tuberculosis, and unsuppressed HIV.
  • Interpretive point: the abstract-level paper profile supports a dual mortality burden from non-communicable and infectious diseases rather than a simple replacement of infectious disease by cardiovascular disease.
  • Setting and generalizability limitation: the evidence comes from a single rural South African HAALSI cohort of adults aged ≥40, and generalizability beyond that setting is not addressed in the abstract profile.
Then read the study layer

Study layer

Study at a glance

Scan the study first. Expand only the parts you want to inspect.

Pieces of work

4

Evidence read

study summary

Lead result

human in vivo

1Lead resulthuman in vivoIdentify baseline risk factors associated with all-cause mortality in HAALSI using time-to-event modeling.Prospective cohort; Cox proportional hazards time-to-event analysisExpand

In plain English

In the HAALSI prospective cohort of 5,059 adults aged ≥40 enrolled in 2014/2015 and followed to 2021, time-to-event regression (Cox proportional hazards) was used to identify baseline predictors of all-cause mortality. Over 28,955 person-years there were 1,116 deaths (22.1%); mortality was higher in men than women. Increased mortality risk was reported for older age, male sex, lower education, smoking and alcohol history, poor self-rated health, underweight, ADL limitations, slower walk speed, lower grip strength, and histories of hypertension, diabetes, stroke, tuberculosis and unsuppressed HIV infection.

Key findings

  • Cohort outcomes and sex-specific mortality rates: 1,116 deaths (22.1%) occurred over 28,955 person-years; mortality rate 48.3 per 1,000 person-years in men versus 30.7 per 1,000 person-years in women.1116 deaths over 28,955 person-years; 48.3/1,000 py (men); 30.7/1,000 py (women)
  • Baseline factors significantly associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality included older age, male sex, lower education, history of smoking or alcohol use, poor self-rated health, underweight, limitations in activities of daily living, slower walk speed, lower grip strength, and histories of hypertension, diabetes, stroke, tuberculosis and unsuppressed HIV infection (identified using Cox proportional hazards models).
“Risk factors for mortality from 2014/2015 to 2021 were analysed using Cox-Proportional Hazards…”
What this piece can’t prove
  • Abstract does not provide numerical effect estimates (HRs, CIs) or full model specification for the Cox analyses.

2 further details could not be confirmed from the summary.

2human in vivoEstimate overall mortality rates among middle-aged and older adults in the rural South African HAALSI cohort during 2014/2015–2021.prospective cohort follow-upExpand

In plain English

Descriptive estimation of all-cause mortality in the HAALSI prospective cohort of adults aged ≥40 enrolled in 2014/2015 with follow-up for deaths through 2021. The cohort (n=5,059) experienced 1,116 deaths (22.1%) over 28,955 person-years; reported sex-stratified mortality rates were 48.3 deaths/1,000 person-years in men and 30.7 deaths/1,000 person-years in women.

Key findings

  • The HAALSI cohort (n=5,059) experienced 1,116 deaths (22.1%) over 28,955 person-years of follow-up through 2021.
  • Reported sex-stratified all-cause mortality rates were higher in men (48.3 deaths per 1,000 person-years) than in women (30.7 deaths per 1,000 person-years).Men 48.3 vs Women 30.7 deaths per 1,000 person-years
“Data were drawn from the Health and Ageing in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community (HAALSI) cohort.”
What this piece can’t prove

2 further details could not be confirmed from the summary.

3human in vivoCharacterize the distribution of cause-specific mortality (leading causes of death) in HAALSI through 2021.prospective cohort descriptive cause fractionsExpand

In plain English

In the HAALSI cohort (adults aged ≥40 at enrolment, 2014/2015–2021), cause-of-death composition among cohort deaths through 2021 is reported: cardiovascular diseases were the leading cause (30.3% overall; 25.9% in men, 35.8% in women), followed by other infectious diseases (23.8%), neoplasms (14.4%), and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (10.1%).

Key findings

  • Cardiovascular diseases were the leading cause of death among HAALSI participants through 2021, accounting for 30.3% of deaths overall and showing sex differences (25.9% in men; 35.8% in women).30.3% overall; 25.9% men; 35.8% women
  • Other infectious diseases comprised the second-largest share of deaths (23.8%).23.8%
“Cardiovascular diseases were the leading causes of death (30.3%) in both men (25.9%) and women (35.8%), followed by other infectious diseases (23.8%), neoplasms (14.4%), HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (10.1%).”
What this piece can’t prove
  • The abstract does not specify the method used for cause-of-death ascertainment or classification (e.g., verbal autopsy, death certificates, adjudication), limiting assessment of misclassification risk.
  • Cause fractions are reported for cohort deaths (n=1,116) among adults aged ≥40 in a single rural South African community and may not be representative of other populations or age groups.
  • The abstract provides proportions but not detailed uncertainty measures (e.g., confidence intervals) for cause-specific fractions.
4human in vivoIdentify risk factors associated with cause-specific mortality accounting for competing risks.Prospective cohort with competing-risk regressionExpand

In plain English

Within the HAALSI prospective cohort (adults ≥40 at 2014/2015, follow-up to 2021), the authors applied Fine and Gray competing-risk regression to analyse risk factors for cause-specific mortality. The abstract reports the cause distribution of deaths and lists factors associated with higher overall mortality, but does not provide cause-specific effect estimates in the abstract.

Key findings

  • Fine and Gray competing-risk regression was explicitly used to analyse cause-specific mortality (2014/2015–2021) in the HAALSI cohort.
  • Cause-of-death composition during follow-up: cardiovascular diseases accounted for the largest share (30.3%), followed by other infectious diseases (23.8%), neoplasms (14.4%), and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis combined (10.1%).
“Risk factors for mortality from 2014/2015 to 2021 were analysed using Cox-Proportional Hazards and Fine and Gray competing-risk models.”
What this piece can’t prove
  • Abstract does not provide cause-specific subdistribution hazard estimates, confidence intervals, or details of covariate selection for the Fine and Gray models.

2 further details could not be confirmed from the summary.

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Open the paper in Tessa

Overall and cause-specific mortality and associated risk factors among middle-aged and older South Africans: findings from the health and ageing in Africa: a longitudinal study of an INDEPTH community in rural South Africa (HAALSI)

Age and ageing · 2026

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NewsLink found the paper. Tessa is where you inspect it deeply.

Papers considered

The selected paper, plus nearby candidates.

PubMed, Europe PMC, Crossref · 36 candidate papers

SelectedOpen access

Overall and cause-specific mortality and associated risk factors among middle-aged and older South Africans: findings from the health and ageing in Africa: a longitudinal study of an INDEPTH community in rural South Africa (HAALSI)

Age and Ageing · 2026 · PubMed, Europe PMC, Crossref

Tessa (opens in a new tab)Source (opens in a new tab)
Candidate

The Vascular Endothelial Glycocalyx in Ageing: Molecular Mechanisms, Age-Related Dysfunction, and Anti-Ageing Strategies for Cardiovascular Healthspan

Journal of Ageing and Longevity · 2026 · Crossref

Source (opens in a new tab)
Candidate

Retirement Without Formal Security: How India’s Unorganized Workers Plan for Old Age

Journal of Population Ageing · 2026 · Crossref

Source (opens in a new tab)
Candidate

What Does Matter Most? Exploring the Phenomenology of Ageing through Age-Friendly Health Systems

Age and Ageing · 2026 · Crossref

Source (opens in a new tab)
Candidate

Collective bargaining in the age of demographic transition: Regulating an ageing workforce in Italy and the Netherlands

European Journal of Industrial Relations · 2026 · Crossref

Source (opens in a new tab)

And 30 more candidates considered.