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Mauritius becomes first country to reverse type 2 diabetes epidemic (opens in a new tab)

news-medical.net · 2026-10-01

Short answerEvidenceSource

Short answer

Mixed

Mixed.

One claim goes further than the study. One other point was not covered by the paper.

  • 3 supported
  • 1 overstated
  • 1 not covered

Checked against the study summary. The full text wasn't available, so some details couldn't be settled either way.

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1
2

NewsLink checks it

Mixed

One claim overstates the study. Three of five check out. One claim the study doesn't address.

  • 3 supported
  • 1 overstated
  • 1 not covered
Open claim evidence
3
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Evidence layer

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5 claims in this story

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Claim 1 of 5OverstatedNew research says Mauritius is the first country in the world to prove it is reversing the type 2 diabetes epidemic using the 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT).View evidenceHide evidence

As statedfirst country in the world

Why this verdict

The abstract-level profile supports that Mauritius had repeated OGTT-based surveys and that type 2 diabetes prevalence rose to 2009 then declined by 2021; it also reports that the authors frame Mauritius as the first country to show decreasing diabetes prevalence over time using OGTT-based WHO criteria. However, the headline wording says the country has 'proved' it is 'reversing' the epidemic and the claim is marked causal/unhedged. The paper evidence is observational repeated cross-sectional prevalence data, not proof of reversal or causation. The headline therefore outruns the evidentiary strength, even though the underlying prevalence decline is real.

1

Study evidence

Age- and sex-standardised prevalence of type 2 diabetes (ages 25–74) increased from 14.7% (95% CI 13.7–15.7) in 1987 to a peak of 23.3% (22.4–24.3) in 2009, then declined to 19.9% (18.6–21.1) in 2021.14.7% (95% CI 13.7–15.7) in 1987; 23.3% (95% CI 22.4–24.3) in 2009; 19.9% (95% CI 18.6–21.1) in 2021

“Non-communicable disease risk factor surveys using standardised protocols were conducted in the general population in 1987, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2009, 2015, and 2021 in Mauritius”
2

Study evidence

Age- and sex-standardised prevalence of intermediate hyperglycaemia (ages 25–74) was 20.8% in 1987 (1024/5017; 95% CI 19.6–21.9), peaked at 24.9% in 2009 (1495/5833; 95% CI 23.8–26.1), and declined to 15.6% in 2021 (580/3343; 95% CI 14.3–16.9), based on OGTT and WHO 2006 criteria.1987: 20.8% (1024/5017; 95% CI 19.6–21.9); 2009: 24.9% (1495/5833; 95% CI 23.8–26.1); 2021: 15.6% (580/3343; 95% CI 14.3–16.9).

“Glycaemic status was classified according to WHO 2006 criteria”
Claim 2 of 5Not coveredThe research is being presented at the Annual Meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes in Milan and published in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology.View evidenceHide evidence

Why this verdict

The supplied abstract-level scientific profile does not contain enough bibliographic or conference-presentation information to verify that the research was presented at the EASD meeting in Milan or published in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. This may be true externally, but it is not established by the provided paper profile.

Claim 3 of 5SupportedMauritius has conducted seven cross-sectional surveys since 1987, and in each survey type 2 diabetes and intermediate hyperglycemia were assessed using OGTT.View evidenceHide evidence

As statedseven cross-sectional surveys since 1987

Why this verdict

The profile states that national NCD risk-factor surveys were conducted in Mauritius in 1987, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2009, 2015, and 2021, and that glycaemic status was classified using WHO 2006 criteria with fasting plasma glucose and OGTT for eligible participants. This supports the story’s description of seven repeated cross-sectional surveys using OGTT-based assessment for type 2 diabetes and intermediate hyperglycaemia, with the caveat that OGTT was not performed in pregnant participants or those taking glucose-lowering medication.

1

Study evidence

Age- and sex-standardised prevalence of type 2 diabetes (ages 25–74) increased from 14.7% (95% CI 13.7–15.7) in 1987 to a peak of 23.3% (22.4–24.3) in 2009, then declined to 19.9% (18.6–21.1) in 2021.14.7% (95% CI 13.7–15.7) in 1987; 23.3% (95% CI 22.4–24.3) in 2009; 19.9% (95% CI 18.6–21.1) in 2021

“Non-communicable disease risk factor surveys using standardised protocols were conducted in the general population in 1987, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2009, 2015, and 2021 in Mauritius”
2

Study evidence

Age- and sex-standardised prevalence of intermediate hyperglycaemia (ages 25–74) was 20.8% in 1987 (1024/5017; 95% CI 19.6–21.9), peaked at 24.9% in 2009 (1495/5833; 95% CI 23.8–26.1), and declined to 15.6% in 2021 (580/3343; 95% CI 14.3–16.9), based on OGTT and WHO 2006 criteria.1987: 20.8% (1024/5017; 95% CI 19.6–21.9); 2009: 24.9% (1495/5833; 95% CI 23.8–26.1); 2021: 15.6% (580/3343; 95% CI 14.3–16.9).

“Glycaemic status was classified according to WHO 2006 criteria”
Claim 4 of 5SupportedReported overall type 2 diabetes prevalence rose from 14.7% in 1987 to 23.3% in 2009, then fell to 19.9% in 2021.View evidenceHide evidence

As stated14.7% to 23.3% to 19.9%

Why this verdict

The reported type 2 diabetes prevalence values match the profile: age- and sex-standardised prevalence was 14.7% in 1987, peaked at 23.3% in 2009, and declined to 19.9% in 2021.

1

Study evidence

Age- and sex-standardised prevalence of type 2 diabetes (ages 25–74) increased from 14.7% (95% CI 13.7–15.7) in 1987 to a peak of 23.3% (22.4–24.3) in 2009, then declined to 19.9% (18.6–21.1) in 2021.14.7% (95% CI 13.7–15.7) in 1987; 23.3% (95% CI 22.4–24.3) in 2009; 19.9% (95% CI 18.6–21.1) in 2021

“Non-communicable disease risk factor surveys using standardised protocols were conducted in the general population in 1987, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2009, 2015, and 2021 in Mauritius”
Claim 5 of 5SupportedThe authors conclude that Mauritius is the first country to show a sustained decrease in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and prediabetes using WHO-recommended OGTT-based diagnostic criteria.View evidenceHide evidence

As statedsustained decrease

Why this verdict

The profile reports OGTT/WHO 2006-based trends for both type 2 diabetes and intermediate hyperglycaemia, with increases to a 2009 peak and declines by 2021. It also states that the authors interpret Mauritius as the first country to show decreasing diabetes prevalence over time using WHO-recommended OGTT-based criteria. The wording is acceptable here because it is framed as the authors’ conclusion about prevalence trends rather than proof of causation.

1

Study evidence

Age- and sex-standardised prevalence of type 2 diabetes (ages 25–74) increased from 14.7% (95% CI 13.7–15.7) in 1987 to a peak of 23.3% (22.4–24.3) in 2009, then declined to 19.9% (18.6–21.1) in 2021.14.7% (95% CI 13.7–15.7) in 1987; 23.3% (95% CI 22.4–24.3) in 2009; 19.9% (95% CI 18.6–21.1) in 2021

“Non-communicable disease risk factor surveys using standardised protocols were conducted in the general population in 1987, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2009, 2015, and 2021 in Mauritius”
2

Study evidence

Age- and sex-standardised prevalence of intermediate hyperglycaemia (ages 25–74) was 20.8% in 1987 (1024/5017; 95% CI 19.6–21.9), peaked at 24.9% in 2009 (1495/5833; 95% CI 23.8–26.1), and declined to 15.6% in 2021 (580/3343; 95% CI 14.3–16.9), based on OGTT and WHO 2006 criteria.1987: 20.8% (1024/5017; 95% CI 19.6–21.9); 2009: 24.9% (1495/5833; 95% CI 23.8–26.1); 2021: 15.6% (580/3343; 95% CI 14.3–16.9).

“Glycaemic status was classified according to WHO 2006 criteria”
Then look for missing context

Context layer

What the story left out

Important study details the story did not include.

  • Methodological detail: OGTT was performed in eligible participants; the abstract specifies that pregnant participants and those taking glucose-lowering medication did not receive OGTT.

    The story emphasizes OGTT as the testing method but does not reflect this eligibility detail. This is a methodological nuance rather than the main result, but it qualifies a broad statement that every participant’s status was assessed by OGTT.

    From Repeated cross-sectional NCD risk-factor surveys (1987–2021); Repeated cross-sectional NCD risk-factor surveys (Mauritiu

  • Secondary finding: the proportion of people with type 2 diabetes who were newly diagnosed decreased from 67.0% in 1987 to 32.5% in 2021.

    This is a distinct secondary result in the profile, but it is not included in the story presentation.

    From Repeated cross-sectional surveys

4 things the story did carry across
  • Primary finding: national age- and sex-standardised type 2 diabetes prevalence in Mauritius increased from 1987 to a 2009 peak and then declined by 2021, based on repeated OGTT-based surveys.
  • Primary finding: intermediate hyperglycaemia/prediabetes prevalence was also tracked with OGTT/WHO 2006 criteria and declined from a 2009 peak to 2021.
  • Study design: evidence comes from repeated cross-sectional population surveys, not longitudinal follow-up of the same individuals.
  • Interpretation limitation: the observational prevalence trends do not prove that Mauritius’ multisector public-health actions caused the decline.
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Study layer

Study at a glance

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Pieces of work

3

Evidence read

study summary

Lead result

human in vivo

1Lead resulthuman in vivoEstimate and describe 1987–2021 national time trends in prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Mauritius using OGTT-based (WHO 2006) classification from repeated NCD risk-factor surveys.Repeated cross-sectional NCD risk-factor surveys (1987–2021)Expand

In plain English

Repeated national NCD risk-factor surveys in Mauritius (1987, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2009, 2015, 2021) using fasting glucose and OGTT with WHO 2006 criteria produced age- and sex-standardised prevalence estimates for type 2 diabetes (ages 25–74). Standardised prevalence rose from 14.7% (95% CI 13.7–15.7) in 1987 to a peak of 23.3% (22.4–24.3) in 2009, then declined to 19.9% (18.6–21.1) in 2021. The proportion of individuals with diabetes who were newly diagnosed fell from 67.0% in 1987 to 32.5% in 2021. Survey participation exceeded 85% in each survey; analyses were stratified by sex, age group, and ethnicity.

Key findings

  • Age- and sex-standardised prevalence of type 2 diabetes (ages 25–74) increased from 14.7% (95% CI 13.7–15.7) in 1987 to a peak of 23.3% (22.4–24.3) in 2009, then declined to 19.9% (18.6–21.1) in 2021.14.7% (95% CI 13.7–15.7) in 1987; 23.3% (95% CI 22.4–24.3) in 2009; 19.9% (95% CI 18.6–21.1) in 2021
  • Proportion of individuals with type 2 diabetes who were newly diagnosed decreased from 67.0% in 1987 to 32.5% in 2021.67.0% (1987) → 32.5% (2021)
“Non-communicable disease risk factor surveys using standardised protocols were conducted in the general population in 1987, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2009, 2015, and 2021 in Mauritius”
What this piece can’t prove
  • Design is repeated cross-sectional surveys; trends reflect population-level prevalence changes over time but do not track individual incidence.
  • Abstract provides limited methodological detail on sampling frames or potential sources of measurement or selection bias beyond reported participation rates (>85%).
2human in vivoEstimate and describe 1987–2021 national time trends in prevalence of intermediate hyperglycaemia in Mauritius using OGTT-based (WHO 2006) classification from repeated NCD risk-factor surveys.Repeated cross-sectional NCD risk-factor surveys (Mauritius, 1987–2021)Expand

In plain English

Repeated national NCD risk-factor surveys in Mauritius (1987, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2009, 2015, 2021) using OGTT and WHO 2006 criteria found age‑ and sex‑standardised prevalence of intermediate hyperglycaemia (ages 25–74) of 20.8% in 1987, peaking at 24.9% in 2009, and declining to 15.6% in 2021 (95% CIs reported in the abstract).

Key findings

  • Age- and sex-standardised prevalence of intermediate hyperglycaemia (ages 25–74) was 20.8% in 1987 (1024/5017; 95% CI 19.6–21.9), peaked at 24.9% in 2009 (1495/5833; 95% CI 23.8–26.1), and declined to 15.6% in 2021 (580/3343; 95% CI 14.3–16.9), based on OGTT and WHO 2006 criteria.1987: 20.8% (1024/5017; 95% CI 19.6–21.9); 2009: 24.9% (1495/5833; 95% CI 23.8–26.1); 2021: 15.6% (580/3343; 95% CI 14.3–16.9).
“Glycaemic status was classified according to WHO 2006 criteria”
What this piece can’t prove
  • Summary is based on abstract information only; the abstract does not report full details on sampling frame, weighting procedures, non-response by subgroup, or other analytic choices.
  • Abstract does not specify how individuals on glucose-lowering medication were classified for intermediate hyperglycaemia prevalence estimates.
3human in vivoQuantify changes over time in the proportion of type 2 diabetes cases that are newly diagnosed (vs previously known/treated) in these surveys.Repeated cross-sectional surveysExpand

In plain English

Repeated national cross-sectional surveys in Mauritius report that the proportion of survey-identified type 2 diabetes cases that were newly diagnosed fell from 67.0% (468/698) in 1987 to 32.5% (292/899) in 2021, based on survey diabetes classification combined with prior diagnosis/medication status.

Key findings

  • The proportion of all individuals with type 2 diabetes who were newly diagnosed decreased from 67.0% in 1987 (468/698) to 32.5% in 2021 (292/899).67.0% → 32.5% (absolute change −34.5 percentage points)
“The proportion of all individuals with type 2 diabetes who were newly diagnosed decreased from 67·0% in 1987 ... to 32·5% ... in 2021”
What this piece can’t prove
  • Possible classification complexities because treated individuals were excluded from OGTT and thus determination of newly diagnosed versus known relies on non-OGTT data elements.
  • No information in abstract about potential changes over time in survey questions, diagnostic practices, or health-care access that could influence the newly diagnosed fraction.

1 further detail could not be confirmed from the summary.

Finally, the search trail

Method layer

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Open the paper in Tessa

Trends in prevalence of type 2 diabetes and intermediate hyperglycaemia in Mauritius from 1987 to 2021 based on results from the oral glucose tolerance test: a repeated cross-sectional study.

The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology · 2026

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Why this one

Near certain

NewsLink found the paper. Tessa is where you inspect it deeply.

Papers considered

The selected paper, plus nearby candidates.

PubMed, Europe PMC, Crossref · 15 candidate papers

Selected

Trends in prevalence of type 2 diabetes and intermediate hyperglycaemia in Mauritius from 1987 to 2021 based on results from the oral glucose tolerance test: a repeated cross-sectional study.

The Lancet. Diabetes & Endocrinology · 2026 · PubMed, Europe PMC, Crossref

Tessa (opens in a new tab)Source (opens in a new tab)
Candidate

IDF2022-0799 Decrease in Diabetes and Prediabetes Prevalence in Mauritius confirmed by the Oral Glucose Tolerance Test

Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice · 2023 · Crossref

Source (opens in a new tab)

And 9 more candidates considered.