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Hurricanes pose long-term health risks for vulnerable older adults (opens in a new tab)

news-medical.net · 2026-10-21

Short answerEvidenceSource

Short answer

Mostly supported

Mostly supported.

One claim goes further than the study.

  • 3 supported
  • 1 overstated

Checked against the study summary. The full text wasn't available, so some details couldn't be settled either way.

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Mostly supported

One claim overstates the study. Three of four check out.

  • 3 supported
  • 1 overstated
Open claim evidence
3

The source study

Assessing the Effects of Hurricane Hazards on Hospitalization or Death Among Older Adults Using Electricity‐Dependent Medical Devices

Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 2026
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Evidence layer

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4 claims in this story

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Claim 1 of 4OverstatedAnalyses using the higher-resolution North Carolina Flood Extent Archive showed stronger and more consistent associations between hurricane exposure and hospitalizations and deaths, and Black individuals experienced worse short- and long-term outcomes as flooding severity increased.View evidenceHide evidence

As statedstronger and more consistent associations

Why this verdict

The profile supports that exploratory FLDEX residential-flooding analyses showed stronger and more consistent exposure–outcome associations, especially at higher flooding thresholds and among Black beneficiaries. However, the story’s statement that Black individuals experienced worse 'short- and long-term outcomes' is stronger and more temporally specific than the abstract-level profile, which reports qualitative race-stratified associations without numeric subgroup estimates and does not clearly specify short- versus long-term race-specific effects. The claim also omits that the FLDEX and race-stratified findings were exploratory at the abstract level.

1

Study evidence

When exposure was defined using FLDEX residential flooding thresholds, the association between hurricane exposure and 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death among older adults using edDME was stronger and more consistent than when using FEMA county-level disaster declarations.

“Exploratory analyses applied North Carolina Flood Extent Archive (FLDEX) to define exposure by residential flooding thresholds.”
2

Study evidence

FLDEX-based exposure definitions yielded stronger and more consistent associations with 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death than FEMA county-level disaster declarations, with effects particularly noted among Black beneficiaries at higher flooding thresholds.

“ARIMA models estimated immediate level changes and sustained trends, including race-stratified analysis.”
Claim 2 of 4SupportedOlder adults who rely on electricity-dependent medical devices such as ventilators, respirators, and dialysis machines may face substantial health risks during and after hurricanes, especially in communities with severe flooding.View evidenceHide evidence

As statedsubstantial health risks

Why this verdict

The abstract-level profile supports the core claim that North Carolina Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 using electricity-dependent durable medical equipment had hurricane-associated hospitalization-or-death risks, with stronger associations when severe residential flooding was used as the exposure metric. The claim is hedged and associational. The profile does not provide quantitative effect sizes, so the word 'substantial' is supported mainly by the seriousness of the outcome rather than a reported magnitude.

1

Study evidence

Using FEMA county-level disaster-declaration exposure definitions, there were no significant immediate changes in 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death following either Hurricane Matthew or Hurricane Florence, but a sustained increase in the composite outcome was observed after Hurricane Matthew.

“We conducted controlled interrupted time series analyses using NC Medicare data (2015–2019).”
2

Study evidence

When exposure was defined using FLDEX residential flooding thresholds, the association between hurricane exposure and 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death among older adults using edDME was stronger and more consistent than when using FEMA county-level disaster declarations.

“Exploratory analyses applied North Carolina Flood Extent Archive (FLDEX) to define exposure by residential flooding thresholds.”
Claim 3 of 4SupportedInvestigators evaluated immediate and sustained effects during the year following Hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Florence (2018) on hospitalizations and deaths among Medicare beneficiaries in North Carolina aged 65 years and older who were using electricity-dependent medical equipment.View evidenceHide evidence

As statedduring the year following

Why this verdict

The paper profile states that investigators used NC Medicare data from 2015–2019, monthly cohorts of beneficiaries aged ≥65 with recent edDME use, and CITS/ARIMA models to estimate immediate level changes and sustained trends after Hurricanes Matthew and Florence. The outcome was a composite of 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death; the story’s wording of 'hospitalizations and deaths' is directionally consistent, though less precise than the paper’s composite endpoint.

1

Study evidence

Using FEMA county-level disaster-declaration exposure definitions, there were no significant immediate changes in 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death following either Hurricane Matthew or Hurricane Florence, but a sustained increase in the composite outcome was observed after Hurricane Matthew.

“We conducted controlled interrupted time series analyses using NC Medicare data (2015–2019).”
Claim 4 of 4SupportedUsing county-level FEMA presidential disaster declarations, the team observed no significant immediate changes after either hurricane, but sustained increases in hospitalizations and deaths over 1 year following Hurricane Matthew.View evidenceHide evidence

As statedover 1 year following Hurricane Matthew

Why this verdict

The profile directly reports that, using FEMA county-level disaster declarations, there were no significant immediate changes after either Hurricane Matthew or Hurricane Florence, but a sustained increase in the 30-day hospitalization-or-death composite was observed after Hurricane Matthew.

1

Study evidence

Using FEMA county-level disaster-declaration exposure definitions, there were no significant immediate changes in 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death following either Hurricane Matthew or Hurricane Florence, but a sustained increase in the composite outcome was observed after Hurricane Matthew.

“We conducted controlled interrupted time series analyses using NC Medicare data (2015–2019).”
Then look for missing context

Context layer

What the story carried across

Nothing material from the study was dropped.

7 things the story did carry across
  • Primary design and population: controlled interrupted time-series/ARIMA analyses of North Carolina Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 with recent electricity-dependent durable medical equipment use after Hurricanes Matthew and Florence.
  • Primary outcome: 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death as a composite endpoint, not separately quantified hospitalization and mortality outcomes in the abstract profile.
  • FEMA county-level disaster declarations were the primary exposure definition; using that definition, no significant immediate posthurricane changes were observed after either storm, while a sustained increase followed Hurricane Matthew.
  • Higher-resolution FLDEX residential-flooding exposure definitions produced stronger and more consistent exposure–outcome associations, particularly at higher flooding thresholds.
  • Race-stratified analyses found more pronounced FLDEX-based associations among Black beneficiaries, but the abstract profile reports these subgroup findings qualitatively and without detailed race-specific estimates.
  • Primary FEMA exposure classification was coarse and may obscure dose-dependent and racially patterned effects of hurricanes.
  • Generalizability is limited to the studied setting: North Carolina Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 using edDME and two hurricanes, Matthew and Florence.
Then read the study layer

Study layer

Study at a glance

Scan the study first. Expand only the parts you want to inspect.

Pieces of work

3

Evidence read

study summary

Lead result

secondary data

1Lead resultsecondary dataEstimate short-term effects of Hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Florence (2018) on 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death among North Carolina Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 using electricity-dependent durable medical equipment (edDME), using controlled interrupted time series (CITS) with FEMA county-level disaster declarations to define exposure.Controlled interrupted time series (CITS) with ARIMAExpand

In plain English

Controlled interrupted time series analysis of North Carolina Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 who recently used electricity-dependent durable medical equipment (edDME) to estimate short-term effects of Hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Florence (2018) on 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death. Primary exposure classification used FEMA county-level disaster declarations; ARIMA CITS models estimated immediate level changes and sustained trend changes. Using FEMA-based exposure there were no significant immediate changes after either storm but a sustained increase in hospitalization or death following Hurricane Matthew. Higher-resolution flood-based (FLDEX) exposure definitions, examined in exploratory analyses, showed stronger and more consistent exposure–outcome associations, especially at higher flooding thresholds and among Black beneficiaries.

Key findings

  • Using FEMA county-level disaster-declaration exposure definitions, there were no significant immediate changes in 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death following either Hurricane Matthew or Hurricane Florence, but a sustained increase in the composite outcome was observed after Hurricane Matthew.
  • Exploratory analyses using FLDEX-based residential flooding thresholds showed stronger and more consistent associations between hurricane-related flooding and 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death, with larger associations at higher flooding thresholds and particularly among Black beneficiaries.
“We conducted controlled interrupted time series analyses using NC Medicare data (2015–2019).”
What this piece can’t prove
  • Primary exposure definition relied on county-level FEMA disaster declarations, which the authors note may be coarse and could obscure dose-dependent effects.
  • FLDEX-based analyses were exploratory; abstract does not provide detailed estimates or robustness checks.
  • Abstract does not report effect sizes, confidence intervals, or sample counts for the reported associations.
2secondary dataAssess how alternative, higher-resolution hurricane exposure definitions (residential flooding from the North Carolina Flood Extent Archive, FLDEX) change exposure–outcome associations (including dose/threshold patterns) compared with FEMA designations.Exploratory CITS/ARIMA with geospatial exposure (FLDEX thresholds)Expand

In plain English

Exploratory controlled interrupted time series (ARIMA) analyses redefined hurricane exposure using the North Carolina Flood Extent Archive (FLDEX) residential flooding thresholds and found stronger, more consistent associations with 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death among Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 using electricity-dependent durable medical equipment (edDME), particularly at higher flooding thresholds and among Black beneficiaries.

Key findings

  • When exposure was defined using FLDEX residential flooding thresholds, the association between hurricane exposure and 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death among older adults using edDME was stronger and more consistent than when using FEMA county-level disaster declarations.
  • Associations exhibited a dose/threshold pattern: higher residential flooding thresholds in FLDEX corresponded to stronger exposure–outcome associations.
“Exploratory analyses applied North Carolina Flood Extent Archive (FLDEX) to define exposure by residential flooding thresholds.”
What this piece can’t prove
  • Abstract does not report numerical effect estimates, confidence intervals, or p-values for the FLDEX-based analyses.

2 further details could not be confirmed from the summary.

3secondary dataEvaluate heterogeneity by race (including race-stratified analyses) in hurricane-associated hospitalization or death under different exposure definitions.Controlled interrupted time series (ARIMA) with race-stratified subgroup analysesExpand

In plain English

Abstract-reported race-stratified controlled interrupted time-series (ARIMA) analyses compared hurricane exposure definitions (county-level FEMA disaster declarations vs FLDEX residential flooding thresholds) for associations with 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death among Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 using electricity-dependent durable medical equipment. FLDEX-based exposure definitions produced stronger and more consistent exposure–outcome associations, with effects highlighted among Black beneficiaries; FEMA-based definitions showed no immediate posthurricane changes and a sustained increase after Hurricane Matthew in the overall cohort, but race-specific estimates are not reported in the abstract.

Key findings

  • FLDEX-based exposure definitions yielded stronger and more consistent associations with 30-day all-cause hospitalization or death than FEMA county-level disaster declarations, with effects particularly noted among Black beneficiaries at higher flooding thresholds.
  • Using FEMA county-level disaster declarations, no significant immediate changes in 30-day hospitalization or death were observed following either hurricane; a sustained increase after Hurricane Matthew was observed in the overall cohort (race-specific FEMA effects not reported).
“ARIMA models estimated immediate level changes and sustained trends, including race-stratified analysis.”
What this piece can’t prove
  • Unclear whether analyses adjusted for potential confounders differently across race-stratified models; control for concurrent time-varying confounders not detailed.
  • Potential exposure misclassification with FEMA county-level definitions; FLDEX analyses described as exploratory but details on validation or thresholds are not provided.

3 further details could not be confirmed from the summary.

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Open the paper in Tessa

Assessing the Effects of Hurricane Hazards on Hospitalization or Death Among Older Adults Using Electricity‐Dependent Medical Devices

Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 2026

Source record (opens in a new tab)

Why this one

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Papers considered

The selected paper, plus nearby candidates.

Crossref, Europe PMC, PubMed · 35 candidate papers

Selected

Assessing the Effects of Hurricane Hazards on Hospitalization or Death Among Older Adults Using Electricity‐Dependent Medical Devices

Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 2026 · Crossref

Source (opens in a new tab)

And 29 more candidates considered.