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Drinking 'Very' Hot Tea or Coffee Could Triple Your Risk of This Cancer, Huge Study Finds : ScienceAlert (opens in a new tab)

sciencealert.com · 2026-10-16

Short answerEvidenceSource

Short answer

Mixed

Mixed.

The claims we could check match the study, but some claims were not covered by the evidence reviewed.

  • 3 supported
  • 4 not covered

Checked against the study summary. The full text wasn't available, so some details couldn't be settled either way.

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NewsLink checks it

Mixed

Every claim we could check holds up. Three of seven claims match the study. This overall rating is based only on the claims we could check. Four claims the study doesn't address.

  • 3 supported
  • 4 not covered
Open claim evidence
3
Source paper

Source layer

The 4 papers the story cites

Source study separated from background citations.

The research anchor for the report.

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Evidence layer

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Each claim gets a verdict. Expand it to see the evidence directly below.

7 claims in this story

Showing all 7 claimsChoose a verdict to focus the list.

Claim 1 of 7Not coveredVery hot beverages above 65 °C were previously classified by IARC as probably carcinogenic to humans, following evidence linking very hot mate with increased esophageal cancer risk.View evidenceHide evidence

Why this verdict

The abstract-level profile supports only the general background that prior studies linked very high-temperature tea or mate, around ~70°C, with increased oesophageal cancer risk. It does not verify the IARC classification wording, the 'probably carcinogenic' category, or the specific >65°C threshold.

1

Study evidence

Consumption of drinks at a self-reported 'very hot' versus 'warm' temperature was associated with a higher risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC).RR = 3.17 (95% CI: 2.49–4.03)

“Pooled estimates were calculated using inverse‐variance‐weighted averages of cohort‐specific log RRs.”
Claim 2 of 7Not coveredResearchers analyzed data from two large UK cohorts, the Million Women Study and UK Biobank, totaling 977,282 participants, and described it as the largest study to date on hot drinks and esophageal cancer.View evidenceHide evidence

As stated977,282 participants

Why this verdict

The paper profile supports the two named UK cohorts and the combined sample size of 977,282 participants. However, the claim that the study was described as the 'largest study to date' is not present in the abstract-level profile, so that superlative cannot be verified at this depth.

1

Study evidence

The paper reports a strong positive association between consuming drinks at a 'very hot' versus 'warm' temperature and risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma in pooled analyses (reported pooled RR = 3.17, 95% CI 2.49–4.03); cohort-specific MWS estimate not reported in abstract.

“In analyses of two large UK cohorts (977,282 participants), we used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (hereafter referred to as RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for oesophageal cancer subtypes by self‐reported preferred drink temperature”
2

Study evidence

Pooled analysis across the two cohorts showed that drinking beverages at a self-reported 'very hot' versus 'warm' temperature was associated with a substantially higher risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma.RR = 3.17 (95% CI: 2.49–4.03)

“In analyses of two large UK cohorts (977,282 participants), we used Cox regression”
Claim 3 of 7Not coveredPeople who preferred 'hot' drinks had a 69 percent higher SCC risk than those who drank 'warm' beverages.View evidenceHide evidence

As stated69 percent higher risk

Why this verdict

The paper profile supports a temperature-gradient analysis generally, but the abstract-level profile does not provide a specific 'hot' versus 'warm' estimate of 69% higher SCC risk. This may be in the full paper, but it is not verifiable from the supplied abstract profile.

1

Study evidence

Consumption of drinks at a self-reported 'very hot' versus 'warm' temperature was associated with a higher risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC).RR = 3.17 (95% CI: 2.49–4.03)

“Pooled estimates were calculated using inverse‐variance‐weighted averages of cohort‐specific log RRs.”
Claim 4 of 7Not coveredThe researchers suggest the temperature effect may apply below the IARC's 65 °C threshold and may reflect thermal injury as the likely mechanism; the article also notes the study appeared in the International Journal of Cancer.View evidenceHide evidence

Why this verdict

The abstract-level profile does not verify the claim that the effect may apply below IARC's 65°C threshold, because absolute temperatures were not measured or mapped in the abstract profile. It also does not include the proposed thermal-injury mechanism or journal-publication detail, so these parts cannot be confirmed at the supplied depth.

1

Study evidence

Consumption of drinks at a self-reported 'very hot' versus 'warm' temperature was associated with a higher risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC).RR = 3.17 (95% CI: 2.49–4.03)

“Pooled estimates were calculated using inverse‐variance‐weighted averages of cohort‐specific log RRs.”
Claim 5 of 7SupportedParticipants who preferred 'very hot' drinks had a 3.17-fold higher relative risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma than people who preferred 'warm' drinks after accounting for drinking frequency.View evidenceHide evidence

As stated3.17-fold higher relative risk

Why this verdict

The abstract-level pooled analysis reports that self-reported 'very hot' versus 'warm' drink temperature was associated with higher oesophageal SCC risk, RR = 3.17 with 95% CI 2.49–4.03, adjusted for consumption frequency.

1

Study evidence

Consumption of drinks at a self-reported 'very hot' versus 'warm' temperature was associated with a higher risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC).RR = 3.17 (95% CI: 2.49–4.03)

“Pooled estimates were calculated using inverse‐variance‐weighted averages of cohort‐specific log RRs.”
Claim 6 of 7SupportedConsuming six or more hot drinks a day was associated with a 71 percent increase in SCC risk compared with consuming fewer than six hot beverages daily, after accounting for drink temperature.View evidenceHide evidence

As stated71 percent increase

Why this verdict

The abstract-level profile reports that daily consumption of 6+ versus <6 hot drinks was associated with higher SCC risk after controlling for drink temperature, RR = 1.71, corresponding to a 71% increase.

1

Study evidence

Daily consumption of 6+ versus <6 hot drinks was associated with a 71% higher risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) after controlling for drink temperature.1.71 (95% CI 1.51–1.94)

“Pooled estimates were calculated using inverse‐variance‐weighted averages of cohort‐specific log RRs.”
Claim 7 of 7SupportedThe article says the researchers did not establish causation, and notes an important limitation: they did not measure absolute beverage temperatures, only self-reported preferences such as 'very hot' and 'hot'.View evidenceHide evidence

Why this verdict

The profile identifies the work as observational prospective cohort analysis and lists self-reported preferred drink temperature as a limitation, with no instrumentally measured absolute drink temperatures or Celsius mapping reported in the abstract. The story's causation and measurement caveats align with those limitations.

1

Study evidence

Consumption of drinks at a self-reported 'very hot' versus 'warm' temperature was associated with a higher risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC).RR = 3.17 (95% CI: 2.49–4.03)

“Pooled estimates were calculated using inverse‐variance‐weighted averages of cohort‐specific log RRs.”
2

Study evidence

Daily consumption of 6+ versus <6 hot drinks was associated with a 71% higher risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) after controlling for drink temperature.1.71 (95% CI 1.51–1.94)

“Pooled estimates were calculated using inverse‐variance‐weighted averages of cohort‐specific log RRs.”
Then look for missing context

Context layer

What the story left out

Important study details the story did not include.

  • Subtype specificity: the abstract reports no clear increased risk for oesophageal adenocarcinoma for 'very hot' versus 'warm' drink temperature, RR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.76–1.12.

    The story focuses on oesophageal SCC and does not mention that the temperature association was not seen for adenocarcinoma, which is a material subtype-specific qualifier in the paper profile.

    From Pooled prospective cohort analysis (MWS + UKB)

  • Frequency association for adenocarcinoma was smaller, RR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.06–1.33, after controlling for temperature.

    The story does not discuss the adenocarcinoma frequency result, although the paper profile presents subtype-specific results for both SCC and AC.

    From Pooled cohort analysis (inverse-variance-weighted pooling of cohort-specific Cox regression estimates)

  • Population-impact estimate: about 14% of oesophageal SCC cases could be avoided if 'very hot' drinkers instead consumed drinks in the lower 'hot' category, subject to causal assumptions.

    The paper profile identifies this as a secondary contribution, but the story presentation does not mention the 14% preventable-fraction estimate or its assumptions.

    From secondary population-impact estimation

6 things the story did carry across
  • Pooled two-cohort prospective analysis of Million Women Study and UK Biobank data, total N = 977,282, using cohort-specific Cox models and inverse-variance pooling.
  • Main temperature finding: self-reported 'very hot' versus 'warm' drinks were associated with higher oesophageal SCC risk, pooled RR = 3.17, adjusted for consumption frequency.
  • Frequency finding: daily consumption of 6+ versus <6 hot drinks was associated with higher SCC risk after controlling for temperature, RR = 1.71.
  • Exposure limitation: preferred drink temperature and frequency were self-reported categorical measures, and the abstract profile does not provide absolute measured beverage temperatures.
  • Observational design limits causal inference and leaves potential residual confounding despite adjustment.
  • Abstract-level reporting does not provide cohort-specific numerical estimates for MWS or UK Biobank, only pooled effect sizes for the key results.
Then read the study layer

Study layer

Study at a glance

Scan the study first. Expand only the parts you want to inspect.

Pieces of work

7

Evidence read

study summary

Lead result

secondary data

1Lead resultsecondary dataEstimate the association between self-reported preferred hot-drink temperature and incident oesophageal cancer risk (overall and by subtype, especially SCC vs AC) in UK adults using two large prospective cohorts and pooled analyses.Pooled prospective cohort analysis (MWS + UKB)Expand

In plain English

Pooled analysis of two large UK prospective cohorts (Million Women Study and UK Biobank; 977,282 participants) used cohort-specific Cox regression and inverse-variance-weighted pooling of log hazard ratios to estimate associations of self-reported preferred hot-drink temperature and hot-drink consumption frequency with incident oesophageal cancer subtypes. Drinking at a self-reported ‘very hot’ versus ‘warm’ temperature was strongly associated with increased risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) but not adenocarcinoma (AC); higher daily frequency of hot drinks was also associated with greater SCC risk after adjusting for temperature. Authors estimate ~14% of SCC cases could be avoided if ‘very hot’ consumers drank at lower temperatures ('hot').

Key findings

  • Consumption of drinks at a self-reported 'very hot' versus 'warm' temperature was associated with a higher risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC).RR = 3.17 (95% CI: 2.49–4.03)
  • No evidence of an increased risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma (AC) for 'very hot' versus 'warm' drink temperature.RR = 0.92 (95% CI: 0.76–1.12)
“Pooled estimates were calculated using inverse‐variance‐weighted averages of cohort‐specific log RRs.”
What this piece can’t prove
  • Exposure (preferred drink temperature and frequency) was self-reported in the cohorts; potential measurement error and misclassification of actual beverage temperature.
  • Abstract does not detail the full set of covariates included in Cox models beyond mutual adjustment for temperature and frequency; residual confounding by other risk factors is possible.
  • Pooling used inverse-variance-weighted averages of cohort-specific log RRs; abstract does not state heterogeneity assessment or whether fixed- or random-effects assumptions were tested.

1 further detail could not be confirmed from the summary.

2secondary dataEstimate the association between self-reported preferred hot-drink temperature and incident oesophageal cancer risk (overall and by subtype, especially SCC vs AC) in UK adults using two large prospective cohorts and pooled analyses.prospective cohort (Million Women Study)Expand

In plain English

Prospective cohort analysis within the Million Women Study (MWS) examined associations between self-reported preferred hot-drink temperature and incident oesophageal cancer subtypes using Cox proportional hazards regression. The MWS component had an average follow-up of 14.2 years and contributed to pooled analyses reported in the paper; cohort-specific effect estimates for MWS are not provided in the abstract.

Key findings

  • The paper reports a strong positive association between consuming drinks at a 'very hot' versus 'warm' temperature and risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma in pooled analyses (reported pooled RR = 3.17, 95% CI 2.49–4.03); cohort-specific MWS estimate not reported in abstract.
  • Pooled analyses reported little or no association between 'very hot' versus 'warm' drink temperature and oesophageal adenocarcinoma (reported pooled RR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.76–1.12).
“In analyses of two large UK cohorts (977,282 participants), we used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (hereafter referred to as RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for oesophageal cancer subtypes by self‐reported preferred drink temperature”
What this piece can’t prove
  • Exposure (preferred hot-drink temperature) is self-reported (reported in abstract).
  • The abstract does not present cohort-specific numerical effect estimates for the Million Women Study component; reported effect sizes are pooled across the two cohorts.
3secondary dataEstimate the association between self-reported preferred hot-drink temperature and incident oesophageal cancer risk (overall and by subtype, especially SCC vs AC) in UK adults using two large prospective cohorts and pooled analyses.Prospective cohort (United Kingdom Biobank component)Expand

In plain English

Cohort-specific prospective analysis from the United Kingdom Biobank (mean follow-up 11.1 years) contributing to pooled estimates assessing associations of self-reported preferred hot-drink temperature and hot-drink consumption frequency with incident oesophageal cancer overall and by subtype (squamous cell carcinoma [SCC] and adenocarcinoma [AC]). Cohort-specific estimates were generated using Cox proportional hazards regression and then pooled across cohorts using inverse-variance-weighted averages of cohort-specific log RRs; the abstract reports pooled effect estimates but does not report UKB-only numerical effect estimates.

Key findings

  • Pooled analysis across the two cohorts showed that drinking beverages at a self-reported 'very hot' versus 'warm' temperature was associated with a substantially higher risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma.RR = 3.17 (95% CI: 2.49–4.03)
  • Pooled analysis showed no clear association between 'very hot' versus 'warm' drink temperature and oesophageal adenocarcinoma.RR = 0.92 (95% CI: 0.76–1.12)
“In analyses of two large UK cohorts (977,282 participants), we used Cox regression”
What this piece can’t prove

4 further details could not be confirmed from the summary.

4secondary dataEstimate the association between frequency/amount of hot drink consumption (tea/coffee; e.g., 6+ per day) and incident oesophageal cancer risk, accounting for drink temperature, with subtype-specific results.Prospective cohort analysis; Cox proportional hazards regressionExpand

In plain English

In pooled prospective analyses of two large UK cohorts (MWS and UK Biobank), daily consumption of 6+ hot drinks versus <6 was associated with higher risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) after statistical control for drink temperature; little or weaker association was observed for oesophageal adenocarcinoma (AC). Analyses used Cox proportional hazards models with mutual adjustment for drink temperature and frequency, and pooled cohort-specific log RRs using inverse-variance weighting.

Key findings

  • Daily consumption of 6+ hot drinks versus <6 was associated with increased risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma.RR = 1.71 (95% CI: 1.51–1.94)
  • Daily consumption of 6+ hot drinks versus <6 showed a smaller association with oesophageal adenocarcinoma.RR = 1.19 (95% CI: 1.06–1.33)
“...frequency of hot drink (tea and coffee) consumption.”
What this piece can’t prove
  • Abstract does not report cohort-specific estimates for the 6+ vs <6 frequency contrast; pooled estimate presented instead.
  • Abstract does not detail the full set of covariates adjusted for beyond mutual adjustment for temperature and frequency.

2 further details could not be confirmed from the summary.

5secondary dataEstimate the association between frequency/amount of hot drink consumption (tea/coffee; e.g., 6+ per day) and incident oesophageal cancer risk, accounting for drink temperature, with subtype-specific results.UK Biobank prospective cohort analysis (component of pooled two-cohort study)Expand

In plain English

In the pooled analysis of two large UK cohorts (including UK Biobank), after mutual adjustment for drink temperature, higher daily frequency of hot drink consumption (6+ versus <6 per day) was associated with increased risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and a smaller increase for adenocarcinoma (AC). The abstract does not report cohort-specific effect estimates for the UK Biobank alone.

Key findings

  • Pooled analysis (two UK cohorts) — daily consumption of 6+ versus <6 hot drinks, adjusted for drink temperature, was associated with a higher risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma.RR 1.71 (95% CI 1.51–1.94)
  • Pooled analysis (two UK cohorts) — daily consumption of 6+ versus <6 hot drinks, adjusted for drink temperature, showed a smaller association with oesophageal adenocarcinoma.RR 1.19 (95% CI 1.06–1.33)
“...frequency of hot drink (tea and coffee) consumption.”
What this piece can’t prove
  • Exposure and drink-temperature measures are self-reported in the cohorts and may be subject to misclassification.
  • Observational design: possible residual confounding by lifestyle or socioeconomic factors not fully controlled in reported models.

2 further details could not be confirmed from the summary.

6secondary dataEstimate the association between frequency/amount of hot drink consumption (tea/coffee; e.g., 6+ per day) and incident oesophageal cancer risk, accounting for drink temperature, with subtype-specific results.Pooled cohort analysis (inverse-variance-weighted pooling of cohort-specific Cox regression estimates)Expand

In plain English

Pooled analysis of two UK cohorts (Million Women Study and UK Biobank; total N ~977,282) estimated subtype-specific associations of hot drink consumption frequency with incident oesophageal cancer, mutually adjusting for self-reported drink temperature. After controlling for temperature, daily consumption of 6+ versus <6 hot drinks was associated with a higher risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (RR = 1.71, 95% CI 1.51–1.94) and showed little association with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (RR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.06–1.33).

Key findings

  • Daily consumption of 6+ versus <6 hot drinks was associated with a 71% higher risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) after controlling for drink temperature.1.71 (95% CI 1.51–1.94)
  • Daily consumption of 6+ versus <6 hot drinks showed little association with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (AC) after controlling for drink temperature.1.19 (95% CI 1.06–1.33)
“Pooled estimates were calculated using inverse‐variance‐weighted averages of cohort‐specific log RRs.”
What this piece can’t prove
  • Exposure measures (hot drink frequency and preferred temperature) were self-reported in the cohorts.
  • Observational pooled cohort design limits causal inference and may be subject to residual confounding.
  • Summary in abstract does not detail other covariates adjusted for beyond drink temperature.
7secondary dataQuantify potential population impact (e.g., preventable fraction) of reducing very-hot drink temperature to lower categories for oesophageal SCC prevention in UK adults.secondary population-impact estimationExpand

In plain English

Paper provides a secondary population-impact estimate that 14% of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) cases in UK adults could be avoided if people who reported drinking at a 'very hot' temperature instead consumed drinks at a lower ('hot') category. This figure is derived from cohort-derived relative risks (pooled from two large UK cohorts) combined with the exposure distribution to define a counterfactual shift in temperature category.

Key findings

  • In UK adults, an estimated 14% of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma cases could be avoided if individuals reporting consumption at a 'very hot' temperature instead consumed drinks at a lower ('hot') category.14% preventable fraction
“In UK adults, an estimated 14% of SCC oesophageal cancers could be avoided if individuals who reported consuming their drinks at a ‘very hot’ temperature instead consumed them at a temperature more representative of the temperature range described here as ‘hot’.”
What this piece can’t prove
  • Calculation depends on validity of the underlying association (pooled RRs) and assumes causality between drink temperature and SCC risk.
  • Relies on self-reported preferred drink temperature, which may be subject to measurement error or misclassification.
  • Abstract does not provide methods detail or uncertainty estimates (CIs) for the preventable-fraction figure.
  • Counterfactual (moving from 'very hot' to 'hot') is categorical and may not map to a specific absolute temperature change; generalizability beyond the studied cohorts/population may be limited.
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